Abstract

This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The paper employed the vector autoregression technique (VAR) with a view to investigate the effect of business cycle on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 is used for the study. Data on real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure (gexp) were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria i.e. shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Particularly, business cycle affects growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period. Therefore, the paper concludes that business cycle and growth affects each other as against the view of earlier macroeconomists who posits that they are unrelated. Thus, the paper proffers the use of stabilization policies for macroeconomic variables as well as ensuring that the effect of business cycle is not trivialized in Nigeria.

How to Cite
O.D, OLADIPO A.D, YUSUFF A.S, Olaniran. Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014); A Time Series Econometric Approach. Global Journal of Human-Social Science Research, [S.l.], jan. 2018. ISSN 2249-460X. Available at: <https://socialscienceresearch.org/index.php/GJHSS/article/view/2420>. Date accessed: 05 mar. 2021.