# Introduction

n line with the new international changes that have occurred on the international scenario in general, and the regional arena in particular, there is a broad debate arising today about what the Japanese-Chinese relations will lead to in the future, as Japan finds that China is a major Asian power that shares its regional aspirations and competes with it. The Asia-Pacific region, especially after it achieved a nuclear military superiority over it, in a way that secures it to achieve its hegemony over the region, while the United States, together with Japan, seeks to impose or establish a regional multilateral security system that works to ensure the achievement of their regional interests, in light of regional and international indicators The emergence of Japanese power confirms its economic, political and perhaps military connotations in the near future, which will push China and Japan to enter a new phase of their relations ruled by competition at one time and cooperation at other times.


# Section 1: The status quo continues

This scenario may keep the various situations, alliances and partnerships as they are in the future without any changes in the patterns of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. This scenario is based on the permanence and continuity of the current political, security-military and economic conditions and situations and the continuation of both Chinese and Japanese efforts to complete the indications of their distinctive role in the Asia-Pacific region and achieve their own interests in it, as well as the continuation of the role of the United States of America, a large part of which is based on the balance of power and preventing the regional supremacy of China or Japan, given that this is linked to the US interests in the Pacific In more precise terms, subjective and other objective variables affect the formal possibility of China-Japan relations and their role in the region. Therefore, the researcher will study the subjective and objective variables as a way to identify the possibilities of this scenario.


# First: Self-variables

The Chinese reconciliations with their internal problems have taken a great deal of relative stability, and this results from the high level of awareness of the Chinese government of the reality of its internal problems, and the development of new and innovative patterns always to solve them, and hence the characteristic of continuity may be a prevailing pattern at the level of the performance of the Chinese state within the framework of its internal policy And in a way that prevents the occurrence of rapid and sudden changes that may constitute a determinant of the course of the Chinese political, economic and military performance, and this stability in China's ability to employ external openness and the resulting increased flow of investments and exports contributed to achieving development so that the Chinese openness abroad became a basic pillar. In the Chinese economic strategy.

The Chinese government has deliberately drawn up rational economic strategies that qualify it to overcome the expected internal and external changes during the next few decades, and focus on improving economic quality based on technical progress, increasing investment and rationalizing consumption, and is moving towards building an economy based on knowledge, information and creativity, and the establishment of a welfare and prosperity society, at a time. China is keen to obtain more accumulation of experience, capital and advanced technology to keep up the industry and information modernization process. ) 0 F 1 ( China has embarked on restructuring its economy and establishing capitalism with a detailed socialist streak of a precise size appropriate to the size of China, as its leaders believe that any radical changes that come at once will have negative results, and indeed the gradual progress in Chinese political and economic reforms has been successful, and the negative effects of the changes have been greatly reduced. Which confirms that the political and economic reform in China was conscious will and with real progression, and this was proven in practice when the countries of the Eastern Bloc collapsed one after the other in 1989, followed by the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, while China, which was affiliated with the socialist camp, remained, and the Chinese reforms proceeded with greater momentum despite some The pitfalls it faced, such as some disagreements within the Chinese Communist Party over the course of these reforms, and the events of the Tiananmen demonstrations in 1989.

Politically, the Chinese leadership may succeed in the long run in achieving a gradual and slow transition towards democracy by establishing an elected authority on a very small scale through which a minimum level of political choice can be allowed as a first stage, and then proceeding to political pluralism by confirming a primary constitutional rule as a second stage.

It can be said that in the current situation the world will witness an economic and political rise of China, which possesses the ingredients that qualify it to be an effective force in the course of economic and political events in the world and what qualifies it to change the balance of these forces in the future.

The Chinese economy will continue in the future as a model for state dominance over its basic joints, embodied in government entities and institutions, which will gradually and slowly shift to the commercial form, without this implying a large-scale recovery of the private sector, meaning that the economic system will be more distant from centralization and closer to privacy and business organization. And projects, but state institutions at the national, regional and local levels will retain their strong and effective role in determining economic plans through wide networks of control and control mechanisms, in other words, government planning and interventionism will remain the main pillars of China's future economy.  As for Japan, whose successes in transforming into a modern industrial powerhouse were a powerful testimony to the ability of the determined elite to modernize traditional society. This in itself is a unique feature that gives it a positive privacy that supports the Japanese confidence in themselves, as the Japanese leadership was able to proceed from the traditional culture to absorb Western technology without negatively influencing Western customs and cultures that are not in harmony with the Japanese culture, meaning that Japan remained preserving the Japanese privacy and did not show a desire to Quote cultural sayings prevailing in the West.

The Japanese peculiarity is evident in several aspects. The Japanese political system, which is a large part of it, mimics the Western model. It developed in particular to settle at what can be called the dominant party system, as the Liberal Democratic Party that ruled Japan between 1955-1993 and then shared power after that Some parties between 1993-1996 to return to rule Japan almost unilaterally since 1996.
) 2 F 3 (
The peculiarity is also evident in the case of what can be called metaphorically as "the relative lack of influence" between the state of political stability and the various connotations of development in Japan, a situation that is rare in other political systems, as the Japanese political system has been characterized by relative instability in political life, especially From the collapse of the last single government of the LDP from 1993 until 2001, six personalities assumed the premiership, the last of which was (Kyuzumi), then came (Shinzo Abe), who resigned without prior warning, to be succeeded by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who assumed the presidency on August 25, 2007., Who added another political and economic crisis that threatened the country with his sudden resignation Monday 1 September 2008, to return (Shinzo Abe) again to reel between resignations, the last of which was on August 28, 2020. The Japanese press considered this step to be "irresponsible.". )


# F


# (

On the economic level, Japan's distinction comes through the continued growth of its economic capabilities despite the existence of major problems at the political and economic level. Japan is now a formidable economic power. Until recently, it enjoyed a huge trade surplus with both Europe and the United States. Japan is also one of the largest donors of international development aid, the largest source of capital and the most prominent creditor country.

The geopolitical factor is not in Japan's interest, as it suffers from its inability to match or support its economic power. This is due to two basic reasons. The first is linked to the constitutional restrictions imposed by ) 3

( Masoud Zahir, The Contemporary Japanese Revival, op. cit., p.235.

) 4 ( Article 9 of its constitution that limits Japan's involvement in international politics, and the second is related to the broader national restrictions that It has been part of its political culture since the end of World War II.

Successive Japanese governments have also realized that the most needed political variable in the future is political reform, due to the flaws in the Japanese political system, as well as that if Japan wants to have an active global role in the future, it will be through several measures, including clearing the way for participation in activities. International military efforts within a civil development framework bypassing the determinants and requirements of its current forces that prohibit military contributions outside Japan and give scope for a Japanese role in international affairs as a party concerned with affairs outside its geographical space, as happened in its military-civilian contribution in Iraq.

It can be said that China and Japan possess the elements of internal power driving the continuation of their role regionally and globally, as China is among the countries in which the state has an active role in the development process, designing strategies, making decisions and implementing them, and it is expected that this role of the state will continue over time, even with the passage of time. The acceleration of market mechanisms applied in the movement of the Chinese economy, and Japan will continue to maintain its competitive performance while facing the Chinese giant, seeking to impose hegemony and influence in the region.


# Second: Objective Variables

In the region, the Chinese policy was characterized by preserving peaceful and cooperative frameworks and in highlighting the economic aspects in its post-Cold War policy scale, as it intended to build economic partnerships with the countries of the region to establish its vital space regionally and internationally. China proposed the concept of (new security) in response to the theory of (Chinese threat), which is based on replacing confrontation and conflicts with dialogue, peace talks, cooperation and common human security, and it is still seeking to achieve a distinguished regional position through which it will be the first regional power in East Asia.  China initiated internal reforms that reflected positively on its regional behavior to confirm its positive openness and the development of its political philosophy. The current situation indicates that China will continue this peaceful policy in the region. China has submitted a proposal to push forward the friendly relations between the countries of the region to resolve disputes by peaceful means, prohibit the traditional and nuclear arms race, strengthen security dialogue and increase mutual trust, and it has actively participated in building (mechanisms) ) To calm unrest.

If we accept the Chinese opinion that its military modernization is defensive and comes at a later stage and to serve the modernization of the economic level, then we will find that China has not started at least in the past two decades any war against any country, and it will become the first goal of China's national security and its military strategy to confirm peace and stability and create a suitable regional environment for construction. Economic, and China will do everything it can to avoid confrontation and military conflicts with any country in the region.

As a continuation of China's efforts to confront the theory of (the Chinese threat), the Chinese government has repeatedly announced that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances, and will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries,    This is at a time when the Chinese leadership realized that the method of military threat is one of the obstacles to its success. For example, the aggressive missile tests it conducted in 1995 and again in 1996 with the aim of threatening the leaders of Taiwan and the United States of America, had achieved military results, as the United States sent two aircraft carriers to Taiwan's defense line and also led to the victory of the Taiwanese opposition president (Li Teng Hu) in the polls, so we have the right to say that the Chinese military practices may cause a tarnish for its image in the region, especially among the countries of Southeast Asia.

Here came the convergence of the views of the United States of America and China regarding Taiwan. The two sides focused on the issue of the peaceful settlement of the conflict, so it adopted an approach based on expanding the rules of communication and coordination on expanding all ties that lead to activating the means of negotiation between China and Taiwan, and ensuring that a comprehensive agreement is reached on the final status of Taiwan in the future with the consent and consent of the two parties, as the United States seeks to achieve Include Japan in the negotiations and talks on the final status of Taiwan.

On the level of Sino-American economic relations, China has been keen on building the potential strategic-security partnership between them, and to ) confirm the credibility that the Chinese rise is a peaceful rise that does not challenge the influence or status of the United States, with the occasional declared or implicit mention that the Chinese role economically serves US interests in The Asia-Pacific region, indeed, it serves US interests, and that China needs a harmonious regional and international peace environment free of conflicts.

At the level of Sino-American economic relations, China has been keen on building the potential strategic-security partnership between them, and to confirm the credibility that the Chinese rise is a peaceful rise that does not challenge the influence or status of the United States, with the occasional declared or implicit mention that the Chinese role economically serves US interests in The Asia-Pacific region, indeed, it serves US interests, and that China needs a harmonious regional and international peace environment free of conflicts. Despite the trade war that broke out between China and the United States of America since Trump took over the US presidency, the two sides realize that it is not in their interest to continue the trade conflict because it leads to unfortunate consequences for both sides.

This means that mutual economic interests will be a common incentive to address the contentious issues between them, specifically regarding the Taiwan question, and that the economic interests between the United States and China will not be easily sacrificed for this issue, which is what China has become convinced of now, as it has shown great flexibility in time. And let it take twenty or thirty years, the important thing is that Taiwan is recognized as a part of China and will one day return to the motherland like Hong Kong.  As for Russia, the relationship between China and Russia has not reached the point of establishing an alliance to confront the one-pole approach, which the United States is pursuing, but all indications indicate that they are seeking to achieve this, and that the fate of Russian-Chinese relations depends on the future of the relationship between Russia and the United States. They succeeded in overcoming disputed issues such as the missile shield and the nuclear files in North Korea and Iran. Relations between Russia and China will remain within their current framework, while they will deepen further in the event of increased tension between Russia and the United States.

As for the European Union, we find that there is harmony in its policy with China within common issues centered on strengthening alternative poles of the powers that govern the global system, such as regional organizations such as the European Union, ASEAN, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They agree to support international organizations, especially the United Nations, to confront unilateral control, as a step to qualify these institutions to be the central player to face the various challenges that threaten the international system. ) 8 F 2 ( There is no doubt that there is a European fear of Chinese invading European markets, especially through the projects of the Belt and Road Initiative.

As for Japan, it has already begun to play a security and political role in the Asia-Pacific region according to a comprehensive formula based mainly on diplomatic and economic tools, which opens the way for the expectation that the shape of Sino-Japanese relations may take a formula closer to the relations that existed between them during the first half of The twentieth century, when competition was the most prominent pattern of regional interactions in the region.

It seems that the main goal of Japan's regional policy is that any multilateral regional cooperation will achieve several benefits for it, including curbing Chinese influence, expanding regional ties with the United States with the possibility of reducing its hegemony over it, as well as increasing Japanese efforts to reduce or reduce regional concerns. Related to its military past, which will help establish more cooperative relations with the countries of the region in order to give priority to economic considerations over security and political aspects, as a previous step for Chinese moves in the region.

The Japanese position in the present and in the future confirms the importance of multi-lateral regional action, provided that Japan has a prominent or perhaps leading role in order to play a relatively distinct role from the US role, according to the Japanese vision in caring for regional security, and in a way that is commensurate with its economy, which is one of the strongest economies in the region. General This position does not include the call for the establishment of a fully independent military force that would lead to the disengagement of Japan from the United States ) 9 F 3 ( Because Japan, which is still linked to a strategic alliance with the United States in Asia and the second country after South Korea, which the United States maintains as a major military base, will feel that any Sino-Korean-Russian alliance in the future will undermine its position and strategic role in the economic and security system in Asia. This Japanese fear is what pushed it to strengthen its alliance with the United States and to start serious talks with North Korea since the beginning of the nineties aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries in exchange for (2) Hayder Zuhair Jasim , Strategy and Foreign Policy in Russian-Chinese Relations, Al-Mustansiriya University, The Political and International Review, Baghdad, 2015, p.542.

) Korea stopping the development of its nuclear weapons and long-range missile.

The possibility of the continuation of the Sino-Japanese competition will lead the ASEAN countries to choose between two options, which are either alliance with China or alliance with Japan or not dealing with them, and each of the two options will lead to increased competition and the arms race in the region, and this matter will be the basis for the possibility of continuing the current situation as a basis For the future, especially since any development or growth in the current roles of the major powers could have a negative impact on the overall regional relations.

As for India, although it was one of the first countries to sign a peace treaty with Japan following the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1952, and it was one of the first countries to benefit from the Japanese foreign aid program after the visit of the former Prime Minister (NobusukeKishi) to New Delhi in the year 1957, during the years of the Cold War, their relations were marred by some apathy due to the two countries entering into counter-alliances and adopting opposite foreign and economic policies, and this negatively affected the pace and volume of Japanese aid to India in that era, which did not exceed (10) million dollars. ) 1 0 F 1 Moreover, their relations, which have witnessed a relative development in the last decade, were crowned with the signing of a military cooperative agreement to exchange services and logistics during the training in which the armed forces of the two countries participate and the peacekeeping operations on September 9, 2020.

As for the Japanese-American relations, it is a strong institutional relationship, as the two parties share an alliance established for more than half a century and have formal and informal decision-making structures, as well as patterns of bilateral cooperation. This confirms that the United States has a very important and influential influence in pushing Japan towards a wider global role and more effective participation. Japan desires a wider role at the regional and international levels to invest in the Japanese economic capabilities and to emphasize the importance of the American role for Japan in this, in order to achieve a common vision based on participation in directing affairs. Global led by the United States of America )
1 1 F 2 (
The continued US support in the military field to Japan, along with the US policy based on encouraging Japan to assume a more effective international role in the field of military security, will, over time, provide Japan with opportunities to develop its military industries; Because this development, even if it is a Japanese need, is also for the United States, especially those industries related to advanced military technology and the remote control system, and from this fact and the fact of convergence in their security concerns, the future indicates more overlap and integration in the common security interests of the two countries. This will make the Russian position oppose the US-Japanese directions, and Russia will push toward China to establish a pivotal partnership against the United States and Japan.

It is worth noting that the American variable embodied in the central role of its role in the reality of regional and international interactions in the Pacific region is the most prominent data in the scenario of the continuation of the status quo. The American role in controlling the balance of regional interactions is a conviction based on a consensus ratio among the countries of the region, and that the differences in perceptions of some regional powers about The American role does not deny or overlook the fact that it is the safety valve for the entire region, especially in regards to controlling the Japanese role, and continuing to manage the Korean issue according to principles (no to nuclear weapons, no to inter-Korean war, not to allow the collapse of the regime in North Korea), and support for the existence of one China Consequently, the centrality of the American role can continue into the next stage, according to the firm regional conviction that it is necessary to play such a role.

It can be said within this scenario that the possibilities indicate that competition is the one that will govern relations between China and Japan at this time, but there are international environment variables that may work to change the direction of these relations towards a decline or escalation according to what these circumstances impose on them, and therefore we will be In front of two assumptions: the first is in the event of receding competition between China and Japan, they will seek to establish a regional (limited) partnership between them or a (multiple) regional partnership to attract international parties that support this partnership. Rivalry and conflict rule the regional environment.

Section 2: Low level of Chinese-Japanese rivalry

The regional and international variables are subject to change, up or down, and this is what the international system has witnessed through its historical stages, and because the indications of change can be observed, whether by increasing the capacities of the parties in the Asia-Pacific region and the development of their regional role, or by the emergence of new variables that impede that development, which may be reflected on the margins of the movement The regionalism of some countries and thus affects the form and intensity of competition, and it may be possible to rethink the feasibility of competition and the need for its continuation through the similarity of perceptions of the Volume XXI Issue II Version I


# ( H )

parties in a way that pushes towards a mutual desire for a form of cooperation and partnership of any size or level as a more successful way to achieve interests.

In this direction, the researcher believes within this scenario that the Chinese-Japanese competition in the Asia-Pacific region may decline in the future and be replaced by patterns of cooperation or partnership, and perhaps obtaining a higher level of regional and international influence is one of the motives for this. The potential partnership might take one of two forms, a limited regional partnership between China and Japan, or a multi-regional partnership by attracting regional and international parties, as the common interest requires.

First: A limited regional partnership The limited regional partnership means the desire of two regional parties to adopt a limited membership regional partnership, limited to two or three parties, sometimes based on similar perceptions and perceptions and converging goals.

China and Japan may resort to this mechanism at the regional level as the best way to activate its regional policy and strengthen its role regionally and internationally, at a time when most of those concerned in Pacific affairs see that the future of this region depends to a large extent on the quality and size of the relationship between the two main regional powers (China and Japan) that are heading To put aside their differences for the sake of common economic interests, and they may move forward towards limited regional participation to establish a new type of international alliances based on linking the economic power and military strength of the two countries in a way that breaks the regional isolation that Japan suffers from, and China gets rid of the US restriction imposed on China in End of the Cold War.

Therefore, reality indicates that they are linked by common interests that qualify them to form an emerging economic and military center or bloc in the Asia-Pacific region. China can benefit from Japanese technology and the opportunities, investments and markets that Japan offers. While Japan believes that it is in its interest to strengthen its relations with China so as not to arouse Asian hostility towards it. In addition, it might bring Russo-Japanese rapprochement and thus reduce Japan's security dependence on the United States. )
1 2 F 1 ( .
The Belt and Road Initiative can provide opportunities for Japanese companies to expand foreign investment, and this will benefit both sides, as the good reputation of Japanese companies will work for the success of the plans and projects of the Belt and Road Initiative if they participate, and it will certainly return to Japan with money and investment opportunities. It is also worth noting that the economic means in Japanese foreign policy aims for several economic and political goals, on the one hand it is an attempt to link the economies of China and ASEAN with the Japanese economy, and on the other hand to achieve democracy and stability in them, in addition to other goals related to Japanese national security and to compensate for the effects of the Japanese occupation of these countries. Previously ) 1 3 F 2 ( Japan realizes that the prosperity of the Chinese economy has a positive effect on it, and it is not in Japan's interest to obstruct its relations with China at a time when the United States of America reaps opportunities for opening up with China, and if Japan wishes to succeed regionally, it should establish exchange relations with China to reduce the scope for the continued US efforts to strengthen its relations With China, because the expansion and diversification of US-Chinese relations may narrow the opportunity for Japan to strengthen its economic relations with China, and such an endeavor enables Japan to contain Chinese risks without resorting to the United States of America .)
1 4 F 3 ( Second: Multiple regional participation
The change in the form and patterns of political interactions is a natural thing in the international system, especially in a region rife with continuous changes, such as the Asia-Pacific region, which includes many major powers and emerging powers, and change is more likely in light of the phenomenon of regional blocs or formations and the increase in interdependence among international powers. Or its strengths. Therefore, the change may be manifested in expanding the interactions of power in the Asia-Pacific region in general, and between China and Japan in particular, by expanding the limited participation to a broader one, which can be called the multi-regional participation.


# China, Japan, the United States and Taiwan

This axis, which may imply a Chinese-Japanese desire to develop regional participation and interactions between them, to include other parties, namely Taiwan and the United States, which are the two main variables in the development of the relationship from bilateral participation to multi-participation.

For China, Taiwan is a vital issue that has an internal affair more than it is a regional one, which today, due to or the last regional party, is important in the Chinese regional orientations in particular and in international stances and balances in general. Consequently, it has become a distinct model for the types of relationships that are unique to the region as:

) 2 ( Osama Al-Ashiri: Japan's Role in the New World Order, International Politics, No. 126, Cairo, 1996, p. 48. 1. Taiwan has security relations and alliance with the United States of America and developed economic relations with Japan. 2. It is linked with China by diversified and flexible relations, the effect of the well-known slogan of China, one country, two systems. 3. The United States and Japan, despite their advanced relations with Taiwan, realize that the Chinese side should not provoke and caution against further deepening of their interests with Taiwan without a balance of Chinese interests. 4. The easing of the security situation in the Taiwan Strait is a necessary need for the stability of the region and for the development of the economies of the four parties and their relations. The United States is the main pillar for it has an effective influence in crystallizing this potential bloc of participatory relations between the four parties, as: ? Its interests are permanent and divergent in the region, which believe on the basis of two types of security arrangements. The first is absolute American hegemony, arrangements that have not been realized. The second is joint security arrangements with the actors, which are the most acceptable and achievable method. ? The best way for the American contribution to the security arrangements is based on achieving two kinds of balance, a balance between the influence of the roles of regional powers such as Japan and China, and a balance in their relations with either side. These two balances depend on the rule that the American rapprochement with any of the regional parties or from China or Japan remains without provoking any of the competing parties, such as the rapprochement of the United States with Taiwan or the American-Indian or American-Pakistani rapprochement etc.


# China, Japan and Russia

The possibility of Russian -Chinese -Japanese cooperation may become an acceptable matter and contained in the record of international relations based on economic benefit. This partnership may move towards the direction of coordination and cooperation in order to tighten control over the regional environment, and this may be done through an agreed division of roles in the Asian region, its south and south. East of it. This trend is supported by: 1. Common security interests, as well as common economic interests facing a common security and economic threat from the United States. 2. The recognition of both Russia and China of the vital interests of each of them within the framework of their regional environment and their endeavor within this framework to achieve cooperation based on participation with Japan.

3. Their pursuit in a cooperative partnership removes the concerns of each party's anxiety about the other. 4. The emergence of this axis in the future may enrich Japan from relying on American protection. The emergence of this axis does not negate the following facts:

? Sino-Russian relations seem to be linked to immediate needs rather than strategic, as the point of rapprochement between them appeared when they felt a lack of security through the United States 'stepping-up of the US missile shield. ? This axis may respond to the big differences in the interests and economies of its countries that are based on social and economic differences, and national measures may be arranged that may limit its activation in the future, () in addition to the fact that the countries of this axis can achieve their interests and create areas of influence and wider regional movement than It would be achieved if it went to the method of participation, meaning that it has a greater margin of action to take measures consistent with its interests towards international issues, far from what will restrict its movement within the partnership, such as its submission to controls and regulations agreed upon by the four parties, which cannot be violated.

In order for this possibility not to go far from reality, and be in line with the distinctive role of the United States in the region in general, or with these parties in particular. This potential grouping could establish a kind of positive relationship with the United States by excluding confrontation with it as a way to open the doors to developing relations between all parties, even if it was in the individual framework, that is, not exaggerating the necessity of mass interaction due to the presence of different percentages of disparities in the nature of US relations with these parties On the one hand, or the possible absence of the practical American desire to deal within this blocking framework on the other hand.

The accession of the United States to this partnership may be possible as a result of the following facts:

1. The Big Four (the United States, China, Japan, and Russia) are the most influential in the region (Siamese, economically and militarily). 2. The benefits of each party in enhancing its cooperation with all the actors, in a way that is consistent with the interest of the rest of the parties, regardless of the problems that these relations encounter.

3. The possibility of finding solutions to issues related to the nature of the parties 'relationship between them, as well as the possibility of conducting the Volume XXI Issue II Version I 45 ( H )

arms reduction process through participation (American -Chinese -Japanese -Russian) to reduce this phenomenon, especially since the door to dialogue is open between them because of the affiliation of these parties in the regional forum For ASEAN (ARF).


# China, Japan, ASEAN and the United States

The Sino-Japanese partnership may include the countries of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) that have natural resources and form a human mass that could represent a wide market for Chinese and Japanese exports, as well as exports from the United States that are keen on the markets of this region.

On the other hand, ASEAN countries see China as an economic giant that contributes to raising its economic development rates by opening Chinese markets to its exports, in addition to technological knowledge, Japanese development aid and the pivotal security role that the United States plays in coordinating these powers, along with ASEAN's efforts. To expand its contributions to security stability in the region.

Consequently, the solidarity sought by the ASEAN countries and their desire for economic development, increasing regional interactions, excluding security concerns, and achieving security and stability in the region will provide ample room for investigation in light of a reality that indicates a US -Japanese -Chinese desire for the same goals. The three parties see in the ASEAN countries are: The basic keys to stability in Southeast Asia, therefore, it continues its positive and constructive cooperation with the OIC countries in order to achieve the desired prosperity.


# China, Japan, Korea and the United States

This axis constitutes one of the important strategic partnerships in East Asia that is likely to emerge, as there is harmony in the policies of these powers, and their relations are sometimes marred by some disagreements, some of which developed to the point of tensions, but their relations soon straightened out as a result of a common awareness of the necessity to contain the risks resulting from the tensions on the one hand. And the benefits of mutual economic interests on the other hand.

Regarding Japan's relations with South Korea, which have developed since their normalization in 1965, today there are changes that support them, as Japan seeks to develop its historical ties with South Korea to establish a partnership in the twenty-first century in light of the growing and strong economic relations between them, which include trade, investment, loans and other Important economic sectors.

(The two Koreas) can be considered a main axis in the possibilities of this partnership, along with the American role, and this advantage that the Korean Peninsula enjoys comes from both subjective and objective reasons. The subjective reasons are reflected in the importance of the strategic location of the island, the capabilities of the two Koreas and their efforts to develop their relations, and they overlook most of the reasons for their intersection, which passed through the most important stations:

1. The accession of the two Koreas in September 1991 to the United Nations ) As for the objective reasons related to the two Koreas' ties to their region, as Japan has strong relations with South Korea, which is basically in a strategic alliance with the United States, North Korea still has close relations with China. ) 1 9 F 5 ( Consequently, China, Japan and the United States may intend to crystallize this axis that includes the Korean Peninsula, and Japan may intend to maintain strong relations with South Korea as a means to remove the Korean historical concern about the disputed islands between them, and Japan will be close to the Korean Peninsula if it is achieved. The unity between its two parts, especially since South Korea controls the Strait of Tsushima, which is absolutely necessary for Japanese security considerations, in addition to the Japanese aspiration to form an economic bloc in the Asia-Pacific region, with multilateral security arrangements for the countries of the region, and a leadership role for the United States to face multiple threats and different circumstances.   


# China, Japan and India

This potential bloc of joint regional action is based on the potential rapprochement between China and India, and this convergence could affect regional interactions, as we know that they are among the most human and largest countries in the world by area, as they constitute approximately (37)% of the world's population and ( 22)% of the area Land. ) 2 0 F 1 ( They will share similar problems sometimes and are linked to economic relations, as India's markets are the largest consumer of Chinese goods in Southeast Asia. And they enjoy the advantage of relative development in many areas, which makes them in constant need for the technology necessary for their development, which strengthens their rapprochement to Japan to secure their needs of technology, depending on the decline of security concerns about Japan, which ultimately makes them in front of a third partner that enhances their capacity and opens the way wide for Japanese exports and believes The latter has its much-needed need for energy.  The future of Indo-Chinese-Japanese relations in light of this possibility will witness further development based on the reality indicating that aspects of agreement and mutual interest outweigh aspects of difference after the conflict between them is not based in fact on real threats, as much as it represents a struggle for regional influence. Moreover, the desire of each of them to have peaceful relations with each other is due to their need to focus attention on their internal affairs, especially the issue of development. China can gain a lot from its rapprochement with India and Japan, especially benefiting from India's experience in the field of information systems, in which India has come a long way. Likewise, India has the technical and expertise of both China and Japan, and Japan can also secure its need for raw materials and Chinese and Indian markets.


# II.


# Conclusion

That China and Japan resort to a kind of joint regional action or multiple regional participation is the most likely in light of the renewed internal and external changes, and that the form of competition between them will change according to the change of the international system in general, and according to the change in the goals and interests of each of them, both regional and global national. It works to declare itself as a regional polarization center in Asia-Pacific to launch from it towards global polarity, so that their relations are based on the basis of competition and then positive  2007. p. 124-126. cooperation and not on the basis of conflict in the light of a multi-polar international system for the purpose of working on the continuation of the affirmation of economic interdependence between them instead of their tendency towards adopting Escalative policies and confronting each other, which negatively affects their development, the international system as a whole, and their international economic and security achievements, that is, they will be ready to accept a participatory role in the Asian leadership with each other in light of an international system, taking the change towards multipolarity, even if it has not settled on it yet.